Donald Trump’s sudden shift on Ukraine has come as a massive shock to most countries in America’s orbit. European leaders who have long banked their national security on US military protection are beginning to lose confidence in their most powerful ally. But there is one American ally that has been planning for this potential eventuality for decades. France has long been sceptical of how much America can be trusted and now they may be the only safe refuge for countries looking for new security guarantees. So how did they see this about-face coming? And what capacity does Paris have to be the new security guarantor for global democracy?