Lukashenko just said Belarus will mobilize units to prepare for war. Zelenskyy says Russia may be planning operations from Belarusian territory toward Kyiv or a NATO country. Russian tactical nuclear weapons and Oreshnik missiles are already on Belarusian soil, and Russian drones are already routing along the Belarus-Ukraine border to reach western Ukrainian cities. So, is Belarus about to enter the war? The answer is more complicated than the question, and honestly more dangerous. The Institute for the Study of War just described the frontline as effectively frozen with maneuver extremely difficult for both sides for anything larger than a squad-sized infantry element. So, this would make opening a new front from Belarus much more attractive to Putin.